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Principle:Sktime Pytorch forecasting NBeats Model Instantiation

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Knowledge Sources
Domains Time_Series, Deep_Learning, Signal_Decomposition
Last Updated 2026-02-08 07:00 GMT

Overview

Technique for instantiating the Neural Basis Expansion Analysis for Time Series (N-BEATS) model with interpretable trend and seasonal decomposition stacks.

Description

N-BEATS is a pure deep learning architecture for univariate time series forecasting that uses backward and forward residual connections with specialized basis expansion blocks. The model decomposes the input signal through a stack of blocks, each producing a partial forecast and a backcast (reconstruction of the input). The interpretable variant uses two stack types: trend blocks with polynomial basis functions and seasonality blocks with Fourier basis functions. This decomposition provides built-in interpretability — the model automatically learns to separate trend from seasonal components. N-BEATS operates on univariate data without covariates, using only the target history as input.

Usage

Use N-BEATS for univariate time series forecasting when: (1) no exogenous covariates are available or needed, (2) interpretable trend/seasonal decomposition is desired, (3) fixed encoder and decoder lengths are acceptable. N-BEATS requires min_encoder_length == max_encoder_length and min_prediction_length == max_prediction_length.

Theoretical Basis

N-BEATS processes the lookback window through a stack of blocks with residual connections:

Block operation: x^l=glb(hl),y^l=glf(hl)

Where hl is the block's hidden representation, gb is the backcast basis function, and gf is the forecast basis function.

Residual learning: xl+1=xlx^l

Basis functions for interpretable stacks:

  • Trend: Polynomial basis gf(h)=k=0pθktk
  • Seasonality: Fourier basis gf(h)=k=1K[akcos(2πkt/T)+bksin(2πkt/T)]

Final forecast: Sum of all block forecasts: y^=l=1Ly^l

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Uses Heuristic

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